Reliability analysis of space debris mitigation strategies using the Monte Carlo process

Resumo

In light of growing space exploration, the risk of collisions involving satellites, rockets and the International Space Station has increased significantly due to the significative number of space debris (objects in orbit that are no longer useful). In this scenario, several public and private organizations have developed strategies to mitigate this problem. The CBERS-1 satellite, launched in 1999 in a Brazil-China collaboration, is still in orbit, despite being decommissioned in 2003. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness and reliability of various mitigation strategies that could have been implemented during the decommissioning of CBERS-1, using the DRAMA (Debris Risk Assessment and Mitigation Analysis) program and the OSCAR (Orbital Spacecraft Active Removal) application, which uses the Monte Carlo method. The objective is to ensure that CBERS-1 re-enters the Earth's atmosphere within a period of 25 years, meeting the ESA (European Space Agency) space debris mitigation requirements. This work contributes to understanding and improving space debris mitigation practices in the context of increasing activity in space.