A new strategy to evaluate the collapse probability and robustness index using Monte Carlo simulation

Resumo

This paper proposes a new strategy to evaluate the collapse probability and its respective robustness
idex through the construction of an event tree using Monte Carlo simulations. This event tree expresses - in
chronological order - the failure that must occur in different structural elements so that the entire building
collapses, characterizing a progressive collapse. Moreover, the possibility of elements failing simultaneously is
also considered. The results obtained so far are promising since they have achieved all the proposed objectives
and provided a method for assessing progressive collapse. The collapse probability of the structure can be
obtained directly in the model or through the application of the theoretical relationship between elements (series
or parallel), reaching the same results for both cases.