Uncertainty and Global Sensitivity Analysis of Wind Turbines Power Pro- duction in Non-Ideal Conditions

Resumo

Starting from a consolidated open-source software for wind turbine simulation (OpenFAST), the effects

of operation in non-ideal conditions on power production of a theoretical 5 MW wind turbine are evaluated. Ca-
pacity factor (CF) and the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for a 500-MW wind farm considering two locations,

one in the northeast of Brazil and another on the North Sea, in Europe, are evaluated. Representative parameters of

non-ideal operational situations are identified and probabilistic models are proposed for the associated uncertain-
ties. Afterward, propagation of uncertainties through Monte Carlo simulations is carried out, and finally, supported

by a global sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indexes, situations that should be primarily treated are identified.
The results indicate that the mean CF is up to 9% lower and mean LCOE is up to 12% lower than their reference
values. Finally, the sensitivity analysis indicates that the greatest influence on generation of the wind turbines and
economic feasibility of wind farms are regarded to rotor misalignment with the wind.