Extension of a Least-Squares Finite Element Method for a Meso-Scale Model of the Spread of COVID-19 for a vaccinated Group

Resumo

In this work, we aim at extending our previous findings on a meso-scale SEIRQD model for the spread
of COVID-19. The model and its extension are based on the division of the total sum of the living population into
different compartments and the virus contraction and recovery dynamics are formulated in a coupled system of
PDEs. This system is to be solved by a Least-Squares Finite Element Method and the results will be compared to

actual real-life data gathered on the spread of the virus in Germany to evaluate the accuracy of predictions com-
puted with our method. We opt to extend the SEIRQD model by incorporating the growing group of vaccinated

individuals. Based on the knowledge on the efficiency of the various vaccines currently in use, we chose to im-
plement this new factor with a certain backflow of vaccinated individuals to the group of exposed individuals to

mimic a failure rate, where the vaccination has not been successful.