Degradation prediction of in-service railway bridges supported by Semi-Markov process
Palavras-chave:
bridge management system, heavy-haul railways, deterioration models, semi-Markov continuous time process, parametric study, validation, forecast analysisResumo
This article describes a model for predicting the degradation of in-service railway bridges based on a
semi-Markov continuous time process. This model relies on the history of inspections of 588 bridges located on a
heavy-haul railway line in Brazil, between 2016 and 2020. A dedicated computational tool developed in Matlab
allows the automated data processing. A parametric study is performed to understand which factors derived from
the bridge structural characteristics, as well as operational and environmental factors, most influence the
deterioration model. The type of material proves to be a decisive factor and therefore two specific prediction
models are stablished, one for concrete bridges and other to steel bridges. The prediction models have an efficiency
equal to 93.7%, for concrete bridges, and 95.1% for steel bridges.
