Probabilistic Static Reliability Analysis of Conveyor Belts Under Degraded and Design Conditions

Resumo

Ensuring the structural reliability of conveyor belts is essential for maintaining safe and efficient operations, particularly as material degradation accumulates over time. In this context, this study presents a probabilistic methodology for assessing the static structural reliability of conveyor systems under both original design and degraded conditions. Employing the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), the approach incorporates statistical variability in material properties and loading conditions, providing a more realistic evaluation of structural performance. To do so, a tailored limit state function is developed to estimate the probability of failure (PF) across different operational scenarios. The methodology is applied to a real-world conveyor belt case study, where both fatigue and static analyses reveal critical shifts in structural behavior due to degradation. The results show a significant increase in PF when degradation is considered, reinforcing the limitations of deterministic analyses and underscoring the value of reliability-based approaches. In summary, this study supports the implementation of probabilistic frameworks in structural asset management to better predict performance, extend service life, and improve safety.