Probabilistic Analysis of Celestial Bodies Entering Earth's Atmosphere Using the Monte Carlo Process

Resumo

The risk of celestial bodies—such as asteroids and comets—colliding with Earth is a growing concern, especially in the context of planetary defense. This study aims to estimate the probability of such bodies entering Earth's atmosphere using the Reliability Theory framework and the Monte Carlo Process (MCP). The analysis is grounded on modeling a performance (or failure) function dependent on the relative velocity and minimum distance of the object from Earth. Both real-world data from NASA's database and randomly generated datasets are utilized. The calculated failure probabilities, corresponding to potential impacts, were 0.11% for real bodies and 0.13% for synthetic ones. These results demonstrate the applicability of MCP in evaluating collision risks and pave the way for further enhancements using more advanced statistical tools and simulation platforms.