Analysis of extreme temperature under climate change and structural impacts on infrastructure

Resumo

The global rise in temperatures, associated with climate change, has intensified the need to understand thermal effects on various systems, including transport infrastructure. In this context, historical air temperature series were analyzed for representative cities across Brazil’s five geographic regions, considering all four seasons. To evaluate extreme temperature events, extreme value distribution models were constructed to estimate probable maximum values as a function of defined return periods. In addition, with the support of data analysis techniques, it was possible to identify trends and variations in thermal patterns over time, in which Bayesian analysis techniques were implemented to allow temporal updating of the maximum temperature distribution. Finally, based on the air temperature data, pavement surface temperatures were estimated and used as boundary conditions in numerical simulations employing the finite element method (FEM). These simulations enabled the quantification of thermally induced stresses in asphalt and concrete layers, aiming to assess the influence of thermal effects on design criteria, thereby contributing to the improvement of infrastructure projects in light of evolving environmental conditions.