OPTIMIZING E-SAF PRODUCTION FROM RENEWABLE METHANOL IN BRAZIL: A MIXED INTEGER LINEAR PROGRAMMING APPROACH

Resumo

The urgent need to decarbonize the aviation sector has prompted research into sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) produced from renewable resources. This study analyzes the production of e-SAFs from sugarcane in Brazil, integrating methanol obtained from both bagasse and CO₂. A mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model was developed to optimize the supply chain, simultaneously considering technological, economic, and logistical factors. The results show that the system is capable of fully meeting the projected SAF demand for 2037, with approximately 67% of the methanol produced from bagasse and the remaining 33% through CO₂ conversion with green hydrogen. The co-generated production of ethanol, renewable diesel, renewable gasoline, and biomethane contributes to the overall system efficiency, achieving an energy efficiency of 57%. The investment analysis shows that methanol production from bagasse and hydrogen generation through PEM electrolysis are the most capitalintensive processes. From a financial perspective, the project has a net present value (NPV) of 53,156.35 MUSD, an internal rate of return (IRR) of 10%, and a discounted payback period of 14.07 years, indicating the economic viability of the initiative. A minimum sales price of 5.05 USD/L was also calculated to ensure the project's profitability under current market conditions.