Service life and reliability of reinforced concrete under chloride intrusion

Abstract

A two-dimensional probabilistic model of chloride ingress in reinforced concrete was established by coupling finite-volume diffusion simulations with Monte Carlo analysis to generate spatial and temporal chloride concentration fields. The time-dependent diffusion coefficient was calibrated against experimental measurements and validated using a 3D Abaqus FEM model, with errors below 10%. Unlike conventional one-dimensional Fick’s-law approaches, the 2D framework reveals localized corrosion “hot spots” driven by complex geometry and boundary interactions. Subsequent Monte Carlo simulations produce maps of steel-bar depassivation probability and corresponding reliability curves.